2013 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

29·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TEN -11.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.020
  • 38.3%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.124
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -4.13CPOE+1.14
  • 31.0%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.79
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:0014Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 14:44319Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 13:2931Punt7–0
JAXQ1 12:3234Punt7–0
TENQ1 11:1539Punt7–0
JAXQ1 9:51752Field goal10–0
TENQ1 6:3139Punt10–0
JAXQ1 4:07518Punt10–0
TENQ1 1:43520Turnover10–0
JAXQ2 14:05619Field goal13–0
TENQ2 10:4738Punt13–0
JAXQ2 9:0310Turnover13–0
TENQ2 8:57518Turnover13–0
JAXQ2 6:224-6Punt13–0
TENQ2 4:25862Touchdown13–7
JAXQ2 0:4127End of half13–7
JAXQ3 15:001169Touchdown20–7
TENQ3 10:171059Field goal20–10
JAXQ3 5:15419Punt20–10
TENQ3 3:45629Punt20–10
JAXQ4 14:5120Turnover20–10
TENQ4 14:1437Field goal20–13
JAXQ4 12:50610Punt20–13
TENQ4 8:0220Safety22–13
JAXQ4 7:4436Punt22–13
TENQ4 5:58662Touchdown22–20
JAXQ4 4:153-2Punt22–20
TENQ4 3:133-8Opp touchdown29–20
TENQ4 2:321282Touchdown29–27
JAXQ4 0:4000End of half29–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne14/2318002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew21412.01
Jordan Todman3113.71
Denard Robinson430.80
Chad Henne2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts24420
Mike Brown24400
Marcedes Lewis36390
Maurice Jones-Drew44330
Clay Harbor11130
Stephen Burton11110
Jordan Todman1120
Ace Sanders0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3326420
Jake Locker4/92401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson12302.50
Shonn Greene9222.40
Jake Locker3186.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick3134.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright79780
Delanie Walker48621
Justin Hunter27510
Chris Johnson57430
Nate Washington35290
Shonn Greene33100
Taylor Thompson1191
Craig Stevens1160
Kenny Britt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.62
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.34