Closing spread
TEN -11.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.020
- 38.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.124
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.13CPOE+1.14
- 31.0%Third-down rate41.0%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.03Points / drive1.79
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 14/23 | 180 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 21 | 41 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/33 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 4/9 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.62
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.34