Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
47
Model margin
-5.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.072
- 46.4%Success rate45.4%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.009EPA / rush+0.003
- 13.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.43CPOE+2.82
- 39.3%Third-down rate40.8%
- 56.7%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.91Points / drive2.19
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 12/18 | 228 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 25 | 155 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 5 | 102 | 2 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Tolzien | 24/39 | 280 | 1 | 2 |
| Seneca Wallace | 5/5 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 24 | 73 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Boykin | 8 | 13 | 112 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.7%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-6.07
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.06