2013 · Week 10

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

27·13

Packers

Green Bay

QB Seneca Wallace

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

47

Model margin

-5.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPackers
  • +0.100EPA / play+0.072
  • 46.4%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.009EPA / rush+0.003
  • 13.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.43CPOE+2.82
  • 39.3%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 56.7%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.19
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–GB
PHIQ1 15:00818Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:031044Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 6:22257Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 5:5739Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:52733Punt7–0
GBQ1 1:591896Turnover7–0
PHIQ2 8:4236Missed field goal7–0
GBQ2 7:36947Missed field goal7–0
PHIQ2 2:54950Field goal10–0
GBQ2 1:16872Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 0:0200End of half10–3
GBQ3 15:00615Punt10–3
PHIQ3 12:12384Touchdown17–3
GBQ3 11:21412Turnover17–3
PHIQ3 9:07421Field goal20–3
GBQ3 7:28951Touchdown20–10
PHIQ3 3:22780Touchdown27–10
GBQ3 0:10844Field goal27–13
PHIQ4 12:193-9Turnover27–13
GBQ4 10:5846Turnover on downs27–13
PHIQ4 9:321378End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles12/1822830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy251556.20
Nick Foles8384.80
Bryce Brown4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper351022
DeSean Jackson45801
Jason Avant24250
James Casey1280
Brent Celek1170
LeSean McCoy1160

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Scott Tolzien24/3928012
Seneca Wallace5/52500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy24733.00
Scott Tolzien11919.00
James Starks451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarrett Boykin8131120
Jordy Nelson610560
James Jones47440
Brandon Bostick33421
Eddie Lacy22110
James Starks1190
Myles White1190
Andrew Quarless1480
Ryan Taylor1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.7%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.07
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-5.06