Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-1.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.007
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.190EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.137
- 10.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- +5.19CPOE+2.86
- 38.4%Third-down rate42.4%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.17Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/26 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 24 | 145 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Christine Michael | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 7 | 106 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/36 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.56