2013 · Week 10

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

33·10

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-1.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapFalcons
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.007
  • 44.6%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.190EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.137
  • 10.9%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +5.19CPOE+2.86
  • 38.4%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.70
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:301048Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 7:32420Punt3–0
SEAQ1 5:42740Punt3–0
ATLQ1 1:4744Punt3–0
SEAQ2 14:49634Field goal6–0
ATLQ2 11:53945Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 6:30280Touchdown13–3
ATLQ2 5:3339Punt13–3
SEAQ2 3:53449Field goal16–3
ATLQ2 1:52416Punt16–3
SEAQ2 1:03765Touchdown23–3
ATLQ2 0:0100End of half23–3
SEAQ3 15:001150Field goal26–3
ATLQ3 7:491547Touchdown26–10
SEAQ3 1:021280Touchdown33–10
ATLQ4 8:48742Turnover33–10
SEAQ4 6:021044Punt33–10
ATLQ4 1:46838End of half33–10

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/2628720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch241456.01
Christine Michael8334.10
Russell Wilson3206.70
Robert Turbin7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate671061
Doug Baldwin58760
Jermaine Kearse34751
Luke Willson12190
Marshawn Lynch33160
Ricardo Lockette0100
Robert Turbin11-50

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3617210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers33110.30
Matt Ryan3155.00
Steven Jackson9111.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas78490
Tony Gonzalez35290
Jacquizz Rodgers57280
Roddy White14200
Darius Johnson12121
Steven Jackson3590
Drew Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.56