2013 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

28·41

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

44

Model margin

+1.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.089
  • 44.7%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.147
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.86CPOE-1.72
  • 42.4%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.34
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:11748Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:511468Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 1:451038Field goal3–3
TBQ2 12:07491Touchdown3–10
ATLQ2 10:1400Turnover on downs3–10
TBQ2 10:13628Turnover on downs3–16
ATLQ2 7:1910Opp touchdown3–17
ATLQ2 7:05538Turnover3–17
TBQ2 5:02538Touchdown3–24
ATLQ2 3:16827Field goal6–24
TBQ2 0:56638Missed field goal6–24
ATLQ3 15:001125Turnover on downs6–24
TBQ3 11:36562Touchdown6–31
ATLQ3 9:34819Punt6–31
TBQ3 5:43720Touchdown6–38
ATLQ3 1:54280Touchdown13–38
TBQ3 1:0234Punt13–38
ATLQ4 14:0821Turnover13–38
TBQ4 13:26937Field goal13–41
ATLQ4 7:15680Touchdown21–41
TBQ4 5:2233Punt21–41
ATLQ4 3:401063Touchdown28–41
TBQ4 1:4531Punt28–41
ATLQ4 0:3411End of half28–41

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3625422
Dominique Davis5/73400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antone Smith28844.01
Steven Jackson11413.70
Jacquizz Rodgers6223.70
Josh Vaughan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas691341
Tony Gonzalez79630
Roddy White39361
Steven Jackson22240
Darius Johnson27180
Jacquizz Rodgers1280
Levine Toilolo1260
Antone Smith1140
Patrick DiMarco0100
Josh Vaughan11-50

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon20/2323120
Bobby Rainey0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey301635.42
Brian Leonard4164.00
Mike Glennon144.00
Michael Hill331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson10121651
Brian Leonard45210
Tiquan Underwood11200
Timothy Wright12130
Tom Crabtree1150
Bobby Rainey2241

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.52