2013 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
44
Model margin
+1.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.089
- 44.7%Success rate37.6%
- +0.068EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.147
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.86CPOE-1.72
- 42.4%Third-down rate31.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.70Points / drive1.34
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/36 | 254 | 2 | 2 |
| Dominique Davis | 5/7 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antone Smith | 2 | 88 | 44.0 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh Vaughan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 6 | 9 | 134 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 9 | 36 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Vaughan | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 20/23 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 30 | 163 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Hill | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 10 | 12 | 165 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.52