Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
54
Model margin
+5.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.230
- 44.0%Success rate48.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.405
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.114
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.53CPOE+8.47
- 38.3%Third-down rate48.7%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.84Points / drive2.85
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/33 | 330 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 7 | 9 | 165 | 2 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/46 | 264 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 0 |
| James Starks | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Saine | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.84