2011 · DIV

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

37·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

GB -8.5

Total

54

Model margin

+5.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPackers
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.230
  • 44.0%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.405
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.114
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +1.53CPOE+8.47
  • 38.3%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.85
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–GB
NYGQ1 15:001267Field goal3–0
GBQ1 8:33750Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 5:33480Touchdown10–3
GBQ1 3:471055Touchdown10–10
NYGQ2 14:54420Missed field goal10–10
GBQ2 12:32937Punt10–10
NYGQ2 9:03846Turnover10–10
GBQ2 5:27415Turnover10–10
NYGQ2 3:37429Field goal13–10
GBQ2 1:51513Punt13–10
NYGQ2 0:41469Touchdown20–10
GBQ3 15:00943Turnover20–10
NYGQ3 10:2839Punt20–10
GBQ3 8:48963Field goal20–13
NYGQ3 3:50415Punt20–13
GBQ3 1:41831Turnover on downs20–13
NYGQ4 12:541033Field goal23–13
GBQ4 7:48215Turnover29–13
NYGQ4 6:5314Touchdown30–13
GBQ4 6:48961Touchdown30–20
NYGQ4 4:46650Touchdown37–20
GBQ4 2:3645Turnover37–20
NYGQ4 1:4700End of half37–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/3333031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw12635.30
Brandon Jacobs9222.41
Eli Manning4102.50
D.J. Ware200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks791652
Victor Cruz55740
Mario Manningham33311
Travis Beckum22220
Ahmad Bradshaw35210
Jake Ballard18170
Devin Thomas0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4626421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers7669.40
James Starks6437.20
Ryan Grant8334.10
Brandon Saine133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver33451
Greg Jennings47400
Jordy Nelson37390
Randall Cobb33380
Jermichael Finley49370
James Starks45240
Ryan Grant35170
James Jones12160
Tom Crabtree0100
Ryan Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.84