Closing spread
SEA -13
Total
45
Model margin
+7.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.059
- 41.4%Success rate44.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.101
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- -2.09CPOE+5.19
- 36.4%Third-down rate38.4%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.75Points / drive2.17
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 13/22 | 129 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Cassel | 5/13 | 78 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 7 | 67 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 4 | 69 | 2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/18 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 63 | 1 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.96
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+7.16