2013 · Week 11

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

20·41

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

SEA -13

Total

45

Model margin

+7.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.059
  • 41.4%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.002EPA / rush-0.101
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -2.09CPOE+5.19
  • 36.4%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.17
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
MINQ1 15:0033Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 13:294-4Field goal0–3
MINQ1 11:251343Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 4:4032Punt3–3
MINQ1 2:5131Punt3–3
SEAQ1 2:10478Touchdown3–10
MINQ2 15:00680Touchdown10–10
SEAQ2 11:281079Touchdown10–17
MINQ2 6:261128Field goal13–17
SEAQ2 0:48446Touchdown13–24
MINQ2 0:1000End of half13–24
SEAQ3 15:00310Punt13–24
MINQ3 13:4338Punt13–24
SEAQ3 11:51633Punt13–24
MINQ3 7:321136Punt13–24
SEAQ3 2:26535Punt13–24
MINQ4 14:4921Turnover13–24
SEAQ4 13:53218Touchdown13–31
MINQ4 13:1435Opp touchdown13–38
MINQ4 12:303-1Turnover13–38
SEAQ4 11:4037Field goal13–41
MINQ4 10:12873Turnover on downs13–41
SEAQ4 6:4138Punt13–41
MINQ4 5:11760Touchdown20–41
SEAQ4 2:18312End of half20–41

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder13/2212912
Matt Cassel5/137811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart7679.60
Adrian Peterson21653.10
Christian Ponder500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Carlson57690
Jarius Wright34692
Cordarrelle Patterson39280
Chase Ford11110
Joe Webb2390
Toby Gerhart1370
Jerome Simpson1210
Adrian Peterson0300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson13/1823020
Tarvaris Jackson1/3600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17543.22
Robert Turbin7172.40
Russell Wilson2147.00
Christine Michael199.00
Tarvaris Jackson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller45690
Doug Baldwin22631
Ricardo Lockette11270
Golden Tate14260
Percy Harvin11170
Robert Turbin12120
Marshawn Lynch2291
Luke Willson1170
Jermaine Kearse0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.96
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+7.16