Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/35 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 6 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 13 | 65 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.