Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutKing DunlapTNeck· DNP
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableJahleel AddaeSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJarret JohnsonLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableLe'Ron McClainRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNick HardwickCNeck· Limited
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTIllness· DNP
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableChad RinehartGToe· Full
- ProbableLawrence GuyDEToe· Full
- ProbableManti Te'oLBElbow· Full
- ProbableMike RemmersTAnkle· Full
Dolphins
- OutJonathan MartinTIllness· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutWill YeatmanTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDimitri PattersonCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableMike PounceyCIllness· DNP
- QuestionableMike WallaceWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableBrandon FieldsPShoulder· Full
- ProbableCaleb SturgisKright Groin· Full
- ProbableChris ClemonsSKnee· Full
- ProbableDaniel ThomasRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJelani JenkinsLBFoot· Full
- ProbableKoa MisiLBKnee· Full
- ProbableMichael EgnewTENeck· Full
- ProbableReshad JonesSGroin· Full
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 9:13 | 8 | 47 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 4:26 | 5 | 9 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:35 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q1 0:18 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:43 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q2 6:29 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 3:39 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q2 0:54 | 5 | 8 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 60 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 10:19 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 7:43 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| MIA | Q3 4:00 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 13–17 |
| LAC | Q3 1:22 | 4 | 56 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| MIA | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–17 |
| LAC | Q4 13:48 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 16–17 |
| MIA | Q4 11:51 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 16–20 |
| LAC | Q4 8:34 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 16–20 |
| MIA | Q4 3:58 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 16–20 |
| LAC | Q4 1:54 | 8 | 58 | End of half | 16–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/35 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 6 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 13 | 65 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.