2013 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.100
- 42.2%Success rate46.4%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.0%Explosive rate13.5%
- -3.92CPOE+2.43
- 40.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 1.37Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 17/35 | 264 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 3 | 60 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 17/26 | 298 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Nick Foles | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.95