2013 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

16·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.100
  • 42.2%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.0%Explosive rate13.5%
  • -3.92CPOE+2.43
  • 40.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.91
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:51617Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:231029Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:04468Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 2:4838Punt0–7
PHIQ1 1:19669Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 14:311167Turnover0–14
PHIQ2 7:44991Field goal0–17
WASQ2 3:51734Punt0–17
PHIQ2 0:41516Punt0–17
WASQ2 0:0700End of half0–17
PHIQ3 15:001486Touchdown0–24
WASQ3 9:41610Punt0–24
PHIQ3 6:213-4Punt0–24
WASQ3 4:37419Punt0–24
PHIQ3 2:4838Punt0–24
WASQ3 0:5454Turnover on downs0–24
PHIQ4 14:16519Turnover on downs6–24
WASQ4 13:08162Touchdown8–24
PHIQ4 12:56724Punt8–24
WASQ4 8:37780Touchdown16–24
PHIQ4 5:5739Punt16–24
WASQ4 3:261888Turnover16–24
PHIQ4 0:2400End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III17/3526421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris22934.20
Robert Griffin III10444.40
Roy Helu33913.00
Pierre Garcon199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon610680
Aldrick Robinson23601
Santana Moss27410
Jordan Reed11120
Roy Helu34110
Leonard Hankerson1150
Nick Williams1250
Logan Paulsen0300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles17/2629800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20773.92
Nick Foles9475.21
Bryce Brown420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson44820
LeSean McCoy44730
Brent Celek11420
Riley Cooper37370
Zach Ertz23310
Bryce Brown22280
Jason Avant1350
Jeff Maehl0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.95