2013 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

24·21

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 25°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.142
  • 47.2%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback-0.087
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.235
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.26CPOE-3.07
  • 35.6%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.06
  • 1.8%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:47612Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:16527Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:073-4Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:38218Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 5:50329Opp touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 4:171156Field goal7–3
DALQ2 12:40585Touchdown14–3
NYGQ2 9:37860Field goal14–6
DALQ2 5:18416Punt14–6
NYGQ2 2:40518Punt14–6
DALQ2 1:2449Punt14–6
NYGQ2 0:35324End of half14–6
NYGQ3 15:00731Turnover on downs14–6
DALQ3 12:351254Touchdown21–6
NYGQ3 6:54667Touchdown21–13
DALQ3 4:33611Punt21–13
NYGQ3 0:593-4Punt21–13
DALQ4 14:09511Punt21–13
NYGQ4 11:4039Punt21–13
DALQ4 10:1040Punt21–13
NYGQ4 8:58858Touchdown21–21
DALQ4 4:451170Field goal24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3823421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray14866.10
Lance Dunbar3206.70
Tony Romo310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant916860
DeMarco Murray33400
Jason Witten47372
Lance Dunbar22260
Miles Austin13170
Cole Beasley24130
Terrance Williams12100
Gavin Escobar1150

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning16/3017420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown211276.00
Brandon Jacobs9758.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle37640
Brandon Myers35391
Victor Cruz24270
Jerrel Jernigan27240
Andre Brown44110
Bear Pascoe1250
Louis Murphy1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.97