Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.142
- 47.2%Success rate40.2%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.087
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.235
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.26CPOE-3.07
- 35.6%Third-down rate32.2%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.21Points / drive1.06
- 1.8%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/38 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 86 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 9 | 16 | 86 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 7 | 37 | 2 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/30 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 9 | 75 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.97