2013 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

13·6

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.156EPA / play-0.109
  • 38.3%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback-0.116
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.099
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -4.13CPOE-3.08
  • 31.0%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.07
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
JAXQ1 15:001075Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 10:576-9Punt7–0
JAXQ1 7:44626Punt7–0
HOUQ1 4:1337Punt7–0
JAXQ1 3:11620Punt7–0
HOUQ1 1:1536Punt7–0
JAXQ2 15:003-5Punt7–0
HOUQ2 13:3937Punt7–0
JAXQ2 11:58673Field goal10–0
HOUQ2 7:5730Punt10–0
JAXQ2 7:27414Punt10–0
HOUQ2 5:04849Field goal10–3
JAXQ2 0:2916End of half10–3
HOUQ3 15:001283Field goal10–6
JAXQ3 8:261454Missed field goal10–6
HOUQ3 0:5749Turnover on downs10–6
JAXQ4 13:4435Punt10–6
HOUQ4 12:5139Punt10–6
JAXQ4 11:11852Field goal13–6
HOUQ4 6:44518Punt13–6
JAXQ4 4:24615Punt13–6
HOUQ4 1:50639Turnover13–6
JAXQ4 0:3400End of half13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne23/3223900
Denard Robinson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew14846.01
Jordan Todman11312.80
Chad Henne331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts811710
Ace Sanders45610
Maurice Jones-Drew66600
Marcedes Lewis11180
Justin Forsett1190
Clay Harbor1180
Kerry Taylor1470
Jordan Todman1150

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum18/3416901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dennis Johnson13745.70
Case Keenum122.00
Ben Tate710.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Griffin12370
Andre Johnson26360
Garrett Graham59320
Ben Tate56260
Dennis Johnson22130
Keshawn Martin12120
DeAndre Hopkins1480
DeVier Posey1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.53