Closing spread
HOU -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.109
- 38.3%Success rate40.7%
- -0.143EPA / dropback-0.116
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.099
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -4.13CPOE-3.08
- 31.0%Third-down rate36.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.03Points / drive1.07
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/32 | 239 | 0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 14 | 84 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Jordan Todman | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 8 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kerry Taylor | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 18/34 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Johnson | 13 | 74 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 5 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.53