2013 · Week 12 · Division

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

26·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Scott Tolzien

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.072
  • 41.4%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.002EPA / rush+0.003
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.09CPOE+2.82
  • 36.4%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.19
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:2743Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:581187Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 4:59524Field goal3–7
GBQ1 1:37719Punt3–7
MINQ2 12:52736Turnover3–7
GBQ2 9:3335Punt3–7
MINQ2 8:47969Field goal6–7
GBQ2 4:2438Punt6–7
MINQ2 3:14748Touchdown13–7
GBQ2 0:50554End of half13–7
MINQ3 15:0035Punt13–7
GBQ3 12:4930Punt13–7
MINQ3 11:50659Touchdown20–7
GBQ3 8:22540Punt20–7
MINQ3 5:261185Field goal23–7
GBQ4 14:221137Touchdown23–13
MINQ4 11:42522Punt23–13
GBQ4 8:401276Touchdown23–20
MINQ4 3:303-2Punt23–20
GBQ4 2:27960Field goal23–23
MINQ4 0:46414Punt23–23
GBQ4 0:0200End of half23–23
GBOT1077Field goal23–26
MINOT1258Field goal26–26
GBOT31Punt26–26
MINOT35Punt26–26
GBOT737Punt26–26
MINOT121End of half26–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder21/3023310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson321464.61
Toby Gerhart89111.40
Christian Ponder3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson24540
Cordarrelle Patterson811540
John Carlson35360
Greg Jennings23290
Rhett Ellison22261
Chase Ford11200
Toby Gerhart1150
Adrian Peterson1120
Jarius Wright0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn21/3621810
Scott Tolzien7/179800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy251104.41
James Starks33712.30
Scott Tolzien22512.51
Matt Flynn4246.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones712800
Jarrett Boykin510601
Jordy Nelson47580
Eddie Lacy66480
Brandon Bostick15240
Andrew Quarless23220
James Starks12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.15