Closing spread
GB -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.072
- 41.4%Success rate45.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.002EPA / rush+0.003
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.09CPOE+2.82
- 36.4%Third-down rate40.8%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.75Points / drive2.19
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 21/30 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 32 | 146 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 8 | 91 | 11.4 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 8 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 21/36 | 218 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 7/17 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 25 | 110 | 4.4 | 1 |
| James Starks | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Matt Flynn | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 7 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 5 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 6 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.15