Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutKing DunlapTNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulJarret JohnsonLBHand· DNP
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableJohnny PatrickCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableJahleel AddaeSAnkle· Full
- ProbableKeenan AllenWRKnee· Full
- ProbableLawrence GuyDEToe· Full
- ProbableManti Te'oLBElbow· Full
- ProbableNick HardwickCNeck· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableVincent BrownWRShoulder· Full
Chiefs
- OutMike DevitoDEKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulEric FisherTShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJon AsamoahGShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTyson JacksonDEAbdomen· Limited
- ProbableAnthony FasanoTEKnee· Full
- ProbableAnthony ShermanRBKnee· Full
- ProbableDerrick JohnsonLBWrist· Full
- ProbableMike CatapanoDEAnkle· Full
- ProbableSanders CommingsSShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:01 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:29 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:11 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:37 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 10:33 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:23 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 4:29 | 3 | 46 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 3:03 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| KC | Q3 12:17 | 10 | 43 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LAC | Q3 9:00 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 17–21 |
| KC | Q3 6:27 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| LAC | Q3 6:09 | 2 | 16 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| KC | Q3 5:27 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| LAC | Q3 2:12 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 27–28 |
| KC | Q4 12:31 | 5 | 57 | Field goal | 27–31 |
| LAC | Q4 9:32 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 34–31 |
| KC | Q4 7:50 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 34–31 |
| LAC | Q4 5:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 34–31 |
| KC | Q4 3:51 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 34–38 |
| LAC | Q4 1:22 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 41–38 |
| KC | Q4 0:24 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 41–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 26/38 | 294 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 115 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 4 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Sean McGrath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.