Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 26/38 | 294 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 115 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 4 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Sean McGrath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.