2011 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
SF -5
Total
38
Model margin
-2.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.058
- 40.8%Success rate41.9%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.048
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- -0.45CPOE-1.12
- 29.6%Third-down rate36.9%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 1.87Points / drive1.48
- 1.0%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/24 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 30/47 | 254 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| John Beck | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 14 | 16 | 105 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.24