2011 · Week 9

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

19·11

Commanders

Washington

QB John Beck

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -5

Total

38

Model margin

-2.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.009EPA / play-0.058
  • 40.8%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.048
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.076
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -0.45CPOE-1.12
  • 29.6%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.48
  • 1.0%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–WAS
WASQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:16626Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:1436Punt0–0
SFQ1 6:34417Punt0–0
WASQ1 4:41925Turnover0–0
SFQ1 0:25522Field goal3–0
WASQ2 12:43836Punt3–0
SFQ2 8:55532Punt3–0
WASQ2 5:5732Punt3–0
SFQ2 4:13544Field goal6–0
WASQ2 1:50212Turnover12–0
SFQ2 1:09130Touchdown13–0
WASQ2 1:03632Field goal13–3
SFQ3 15:00739Punt13–3
WASQ3 11:0036Punt13–3
SFQ3 9:11835Field goal16–3
WASQ3 4:231163Turnover on downs16–3
SFQ4 14:111074Field goal19–3
WASQ4 7:41110Turnover19–3
SFQ4 7:2335Turnover19–3
WASQ4 6:41619Turnover on downs19–3
SFQ4 5:1134Punt19–3
WASQ4 4:061172Touchdown19–11
SFQ4 1:1000End of half19–11

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith17/2420010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore191075.60
Kendall Hunter8253.10
Alex Smith492.30
Delanie Walker1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree55510
Vernon Davis47410
Braylon Edwards23300
Delanie Walker22150
Ted Ginn11140
Kyle Williams12120
Frank Gore1370

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Beck30/4725411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roy Helu10414.10
John Beck393.00
Ryan Torain122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Helu14161050
Fred Davis47420
Jabar Gaffney45401
Leonard Hankerson46340
Terrence Austin25140
Ryan Torain1170
Anthony Armstrong0100
Logan Paulsen0200
Niles Paul0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.73
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.24