2013 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

24·21

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapLions
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.004
  • 37.6%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.049EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -1.72CPOE-3.33
  • 31.1%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.75
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DET
DETQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:5632Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:00412Turnover0–0
TBQ1 11:141353Field goal3–0
DETQ1 3:231290Touchdown3–7
TBQ2 11:50680Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 8:42765Touchdown10–14
TBQ2 4:3332Punt10–14
DETQ2 1:54416Opp touchdown17–14
DETQ2 0:50517Punt17–14
TBQ2 0:0600End of half17–14
TBQ3 15:003-7Punt17–14
DETQ3 13:29869Touchdown17–21
TBQ3 9:3634Punt17–21
DETQ3 8:34749Turnover17–21
TBQ3 5:34623Punt17–21
DETQ3 2:2939Punt17–21
TBQ3 0:47495Touchdown24–21
DETQ4 14:0575Punt24–21
TBQ4 9:503-6Missed field goal24–21
DETQ4 7:44729Turnover24–21
TBQ4 5:3140Missed field goal24–21
DETQ4 3:49931Turnover24–21
TBQ4 0:5000End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon14/2124720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey18351.90
Brian Leonard133.00
Skye Dawson111.00
Mike Glennon4-17-4.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiquan Underwood351082
Timothy Wright89750
Vincent Jackson23610
Brian Leonard1230
Bobby Rainey0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4629734

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush15835.50
Joique Bell6152.50
Matthew Stafford263.00
Nate Burleson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson7141150
Nate Burleson710771
Kris Durham36460
Brandon Pettigrew35321
Reggie Bush47170
Joseph Fauria11101
Joique Bell1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.67