2013 · Week 12
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.004
- 37.6%Success rate43.1%
- -0.049EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- -1.72CPOE-3.33
- 31.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 1.34Points / drive1.75
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 14/21 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 18 | 35 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Skye Dawson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 4 | -17 | -4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 5 | 108 | 2 |
| Timothy Wright | 8 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/46 | 297 | 3 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 14 | 115 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Kris Durham | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67