2013 · Week 13 · Division

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Josh McCown

20·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-4.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.017
  • 45.2%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.002
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +4.85CPOE-2.09
  • 42.7%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.75
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:0054Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:3539Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:573-7Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:32411Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:413-1Punt0–0
CHIQ1 6:161059Field goal3–0
MINQ1 1:06417Punt3–0
CHIQ2 14:13740Punt3–0
MINQ2 10:00590Touchdown3–7
CHIQ2 7:27958Field goal6–7
MINQ2 2:47514Punt6–7
CHIQ2 1:00432Punt6–7
MINQ2 0:1216End of half6–7
CHIQ3 15:00280Touchdown13–7
MINQ3 14:081381Field goal13–10
CHIQ3 7:08483Touchdown20–10
MINQ3 5:15529Punt20–10
CHIQ3 2:43748Punt20–10
MINQ4 14:061389Touchdown20–17
CHIQ4 7:412-2Turnover20–17
MINQ4 6:4756Turnover20–17
CHIQ4 4:3839Punt20–17
MINQ4 2:401182Field goal20–20
CHIQ4 0:2022Missed field goal20–20
CHIOT627Punt20–20
MINOT839Missed field goal20–20
CHIOT524Missed field goal20–20
MINOT647Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown23/3635520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte231205.20
Michael Bush11515.00
Alshon Jeffery100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery12152492
Brandon Marshall49450
Matt Forte22310
Earl Bennett23170
Martellus Bennett25140

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel20/3324311
Christian Ponder3/84000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson352116.00
Cordarrelle Patterson22713.51
Toby Gerhart284.00
Matt Cassel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings79781
Jerome Simpson39760
John Carlson45610
Jarius Wright33530
Toby Gerhart1140
Cordarrelle Patterson1440
Chase Ford1120
Adrian Peterson2400
Rhett Ellison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

6.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.19
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.63