Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-4.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.017
- 45.2%Success rate41.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.002
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.85CPOE-2.09
- 42.7%Third-down rate36.4%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.95Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 23/36 | 355 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 12 | 15 | 249 | 2 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/33 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 3/8 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 35 | 211 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
6.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-6.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.63