Closing spread
DET -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+9.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.004
- 45.4%Success rate43.1%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.142
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.7%
- +2.82CPOE-3.33
- 40.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 2.19Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 10/20 | 139 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 3 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/35 | 330 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 20 | 117 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 19 | 94 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 10 | 101 | 1 |
| Kris Durham | 3 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+6.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.99