2013 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Matt Flynn

10·40

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+9.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.004
  • 45.4%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.142
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +2.82CPOE-3.33
  • 40.8%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.75
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:001069Turnover0–0
GBQ1 9:36730Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:331190Field goal0–3
GBQ2 14:51424Field goal3–3
DETQ2 12:411-10Opp touchdown10–3
DETQ2 12:33533Turnover10–3
GBQ2 9:4031Punt10–3
DETQ2 8:42885Touchdown10–10
GBQ2 4:333-4Punt10–10
DETQ2 2:38328Touchdown10–17
GBQ2 1:223-8Punt10–17
DETQ2 1:02445Missed field goal10–17
GBQ3 15:003-1Punt10–17
DETQ3 13:30963Touchdown10–24
GBQ3 9:081-3Turnover10–24
DETQ3 9:0230Turnover10–24
GBQ3 8:42823Turnover10–24
DETQ3 5:33727Punt10–24
GBQ3 1:362-5Safety10–26
DETQ3 0:53558Touchdown10–33
GBQ4 13:063-1Punt10–33
DETQ4 11:351175Touchdown10–40
GBQ4 4:17670Turnover10–40
DETQ4 1:0800End of half10–40

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn10/2013901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy10161.60
Matt Flynn242.00
James Starks221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones35790
Eddie Lacy24230
Jordy Nelson24140
Ryan Taylor1180
Andrew Quarless1270
Jarrett Boykin0300

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3533032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush201175.81
Joique Bell19944.91
Jeremy Ross12424.00
Matthew Stafford188.00
Shaun Hill2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson6101011
Kris Durham37680
Reggie Bush55650
Joique Bell34340
Dorin Dickerson11260
Kevin Ogletree11201
Brandon Pettigrew1260
Jeremy Ross1151
Theo Riddick1150
Nate Burleson0100
Joseph Fauria0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.7%5.3%6.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+6.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.99