2013 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

23·3

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.105
  • 41.1%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.18CPOE-4.00
  • 35.5%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.25
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
MIAQ1 15:001674Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ1 5:503-2Punt0–0
MIAQ1 4:29724Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 1:21619Punt0–0
MIAQ2 14:141259Turnover0–0
NYJQ2 7:5439Punt0–0
MIAQ2 6:22851Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ2 1:5632Punt0–0
MIAQ2 1:35638Field goal3–0
NYJQ2 0:44311Turnover3–0
MIAQ2 0:22319Field goal6–0
NYJQ2 0:0500End of half6–0
NYJQ3 15:0034Punt6–0
MIAQ3 13:2435Punt6–0
NYJQ3 12:29525Turnover6–0
MIAQ3 10:08248Touchdown13–0
NYJQ3 9:421064Field goal13–3
MIAQ3 4:30656Touchdown20–3
NYJQ3 1:023-14Punt20–3
MIAQ4 14:2336Punt20–3
NYJQ4 13:0334Punt20–3
MIAQ4 12:141060Field goal23–3
NYJQ4 5:59948Turnover23–3
MIAQ4 3:27514Punt23–3
NYJQ4 1:4747Turnover on downs23–3
MIAQ4 0:3600End of half23–3

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill28/4333121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller22723.30
Ryan Tannehill3227.30
Mike Gillislee6213.50
Marcus Thigpen4102.50
Charles Clay100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline9151271
Mike Wallace79821
Charles Clay710800
Rishard Matthews23210
Lamar Miller11130
Dion Sims1280
Marcus Thigpen1100
Marlon Moore0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Simms9/187901
Geno Smith4/102901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory12615.10
Bilal Powell7344.90
Matt Simms221.00
Geno Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Nelson38370
Kellen Winslow33260
Bilal Powell35250
Chris Ivory11120
Jeff Cumberland1360
Stephen Hill1420
Greg Salas1400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69