Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.105
- 41.1%Success rate37.6%
- +0.009EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.18CPOE-4.00
- 35.5%Third-down rate38.8%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.51Points / drive1.25
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 28/43 | 331 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 9 | 15 | 127 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 7 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Simms | 9/18 | 79 | 0 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4/10 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Matt Simms | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nelson | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69