2013 · Week 13 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.142EPA / play-0.058
- 40.2%Success rate42.2%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.07CPOE-3.92
- 32.2%Third-down rate40.7%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.06Points / drive1.37
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/28 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 24/32 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 9 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.96