Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.096
- 42.4%Success rate36.3%
- +0.096EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.173EPA / rush-0.263
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.30CPOE-1.63
- 37.6%Third-down rate36.0%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.82Points / drive1.33
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 28/44 | 257 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Suisham | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 11 | 43 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 24/35 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 10 | 93 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.14