2013 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

20·22

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 37°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.096
  • 42.4%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.096EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.173EPA / rush-0.263
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.4%
  • +3.30CPOE-1.63
  • 37.6%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.33
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:24871Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 9:181237Punt0–7
BALQ1 3:001048Punt0–7
PITQ2 13:321246Turnover on downs0–7
BALQ2 7:19910Field goal0–10
PITQ2 3:0139Punt0–10
BALQ2 1:50522End of half0–10
BALQ3 15:001257Field goal0–13
PITQ3 9:21780Touchdown7–13
BALQ3 6:26422Field goal7–16
PITQ3 3:4937Punt7–16
BALQ3 1:59642Field goal7–19
PITQ4 13:591250Touchdown14–19
BALQ4 9:32641Field goal14–22
PITQ4 5:371494Touchdown20–22
BALQ4 1:0300End of half20–22

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger28/4425720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell16734.61
Ben Roethlisberger11111.00
Shaun Suisham1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Heath Miller89860
Le'Veon Bell79630
Antonio Brown58590
Emmanuel Sanders611431
Jerricho Cotchery2661
Will Johnson0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco24/3525110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce9353.90
Ray Rice12322.70
Joe Flacco471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith610931
Jacoby Jones47530
Ray Rice67380
Brandon Stokley23270
Ed Dickson12160
Marlon Brown11120
Dallas Clark1280
Bernard Pierce3340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.14