Closing spread
SF -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- QuestionableBrandon McGeeCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableHarvey DahlGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableT.J. McDonaldSShin· Limited
- ProbableWill WitherspoonLBNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableChris WilliamsGConcussion· Full
- ProbableEugene SimsDEFoot· Full
- ProbableTrumaine JohnsonCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableZac StacyRBConcussion· Full
49ers
- QuestionableAhmad BrooksLBStinger· Limited
- QuestionableAldon SmithLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableGarrett CelekTEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableMike IupatiGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableQuinton PattonWRFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRay McDonaldDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTarell BrownCBRibs· DNP
- ProbableMario ManninghamWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableDan SkutaLBFoot· Full
- ProbableFrank GoreRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJustin SmithDTShoulder· Full
- ProbableNavorro BowmanLBKnee· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:51 | 12 | 53 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 7:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 5:49 | 12 | 42 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 14:16 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–6 |
| SF | Q2 12:15 | 12 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 6:15 | 13 | 39 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| SF | Q2 0:54 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 3–13 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LA | Q3 13:31 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| SF | Q3 8:56 | 9 | 77 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| LA | Q3 3:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–16 |
| SF | Q3 1:55 | 5 | 70 | Turnover | 6–16 |
| LA | Q3 0:05 | 4 | -3 | Turnover on downs | 6–22 |
| SF | Q4 14:41 | 1 | 17 | Touchdown | 6–23 |
| LA | Q4 14:31 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–23 |
| SF | Q4 13:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–23 |
| LA | Q4 11:29 | 14 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 6–23 |
| SF | Q4 6:38 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 6–23 |
| LA | Q4 4:16 | 4 | 36 | Turnover | 6–23 |
| SF | Q4 3:30 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–23 |
| LA | Q4 2:22 | 10 | 102 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| SF | Q4 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 19/28 | 275 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 9 | 13 | 98 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.