2013 · Week 14

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

21·22

Packers

Green Bay

QB Matt Flynn

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 9°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-2.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPackers
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.072
  • 44.7%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.137EPA / rush+0.003
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.86CPOE+2.82
  • 42.4%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.19
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–GB
ATLQ1 15:001042Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:071890Touchdown0–7
ATLQ2 15:00778Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 11:011-10Turnover7–7
ATLQ2 10:49413Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 8:431040Field goal14–10
ATLQ2 3:39516Punt14–10
GBQ2 2:20850Opp touchdown21–10
GBQ2 0:2331End of half21–10
GBQ3 15:0035Punt21–10
ATLQ3 13:1233Punt21–10
GBQ3 12:18558Field goal21–13
ATLQ3 9:0638Punt21–13
GBQ3 7:261168Field goal21–16
ATLQ3 0:4536Turnover21–16
GBQ4 13:50421Touchdown21–22
ATLQ4 12:011035Missed field goal21–22
GBQ4 6:4238Punt21–22
ATLQ4 4:38950Turnover on downs21–22
GBQ4 1:5534Punt21–22
ATLQ4 0:44534Turnover21–22
GBQ4 0:0400End of half21–22

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3520621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson16724.50
Jacquizz Rodgers6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White810740
Drew Davis11361
Jacquizz Rodgers34330
Tony Gonzalez36251
Harry Douglas27200
Steven Jackson1390
Patrick DiMarco1170
Darius Johnson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn24/3225811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy20653.31
Matt Flynn6284.70
James Starks7192.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson44850
Andrew Quarless67661
Brandon Bostick24280
Eddie Lacy35250
Jarrett Boykin23230
James Jones45190
Ryan Taylor2270
Myles White1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.75
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-2.49