Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-2.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.072
- 44.7%Success rate45.4%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.137EPA / rush+0.003
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.86CPOE+2.82
- 42.4%Third-down rate40.8%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.70Points / drive2.19
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. GB are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/35 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 24/32 | 258 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Matt Flynn | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 6 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Brandon Bostick | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-6.75
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.49