2013 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.089
- 39.7%Success rate37.6%
- -0.107EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.82CPOE-1.72
- 33.7%Third-down rate31.1%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.33Points / drive1.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. TB are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 18/33 | 184 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Wingo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Wingo | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 9/25 | 90 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 22 | 127 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Michael Hill | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eric Page | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Timothy Wright | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Skye Dawson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 3 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36