2013 · Week 14

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

6·27

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.089
  • 39.7%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.107EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -3.82CPOE-1.72
  • 33.7%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.34
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. TB are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11TB @ BUF32–44BUF
2023 · W8TB @ BUF18–24BUF
2021 · W14BUF @ TB27–33TB
2017 · W7TB @ BUF27–30BUF
2009 · W2TB @ BUF20–33BUF
2005 · W2BUF @ TB3–19TB
2000 · W13BUF @ TB17–31TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–TB
TBQ1 15:00280Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 14:42613Punt0–7
TBQ1 11:4430Punt0–7
BUFQ1 10:36621Field goal3–7
TBQ1 8:071090Touchdown3–14
BUFQ1 2:343-3Punt3–14
TBQ1 1:103-1Punt3–14
BUFQ1 0:22425Turnover3–14
TBQ2 13:5631Turnover3–14
BUFQ2 13:16314Turnover3–14
TBQ2 12:1736Field goal3–17
BUFQ2 10:453-7Punt3–17
TBQ2 9:1534Punt3–17
TBQ2 7:4421Turnover3–17
BUFQ2 7:00511Punt3–17
TBQ2 4:461137Touchdown3–24
BUFQ2 0:1500End of half3–24
BUFQ3 15:001051Field goal6–24
TBQ3 10:193-4Punt6–24
BUFQ3 8:01516Turnover6–24
TBQ3 6:065-8Punt6–24
BUFQ3 3:39626Turnover6–24
TBQ3 1:0133Field goal6–27
BUFQ3 0:07746Punt6–27
TBQ4 13:1838Punt6–27
BUFQ4 11:40410Punt6–27
TBQ4 9:2468Punt6–27
BUFQ4 5:343-9Punt6–27
TBQ4 4:20621Punt6–27
BUFQ4 0:2214End of half6–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel18/3318404

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
EJ Manuel5295.80
C.J. Spiller11222.00
Fred Jackson5122.40
Ronnie Wingo144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson511670
Fred Jackson47260
C.J. Spiller11260
Scott Chandler23240
Robert Woods35200
Chris Hogan11120
Lee Smith1170
Ronnie Wingo1120
Trevor Graham0300

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon9/259022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey221275.81
Brian Leonard7263.70
Michael Hill5173.40
Mike Glennon100.00
Eric Page1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson38701
Timothy Wright23211
Skye Dawson1330
Tiquan Underwood0500
Bobby Rainey34-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.36