2017 · Week 7

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

27·30

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 74°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBills
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.071
  • 44.2%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.135
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.38CPOE-0.28
  • 42.9%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.47
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11TB @ BUF32–44BUF
2023 · W8TB @ BUF18–24BUF
2021 · W14BUF @ TB27–33TB
2013 · W14BUF @ TB6–27TB
2009 · W2TB @ BUF20–33BUF
2005 · W2BUF @ TB3–19TB
2000 · W13BUF @ TB17–31TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–BUF
TBQ1 15:001163Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 9:441069Field goal3–3
TBQ1 5:451069Field goal6–3
BUFQ1 0:221278Touchdown6–10
TBQ2 9:26837Turnover6–10
BUFQ2 6:26633Missed field goal6–10
TBQ2 4:07732Punt6–10
BUFQ2 1:43616Punt6–10
TBQ2 0:46315Turnover6–10
BUFQ2 0:23210End of half6–10
BUFQ3 15:00875Touchdown6–17
TBQ3 11:36870Touchdown13–17
BUFQ3 7:114-7Punt13–17
TBQ3 5:15524Punt13–17
BUFQ3 2:57951Field goal13–20
TBQ4 13:31775Touchdown20–20
BUFQ4 10:08228Turnover20–20
TBQ4 9:301049Touchdown27–20
BUFQ4 3:14360Touchdown27–27
TBQ4 2:2818Turnover27–27
BUFQ4 2:20621Field goal27–30
TBQ4 0:1425End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston32/4438431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin20492.50
Bernard Reedy11010.00
Charles Sims284.00
Jacquizz Rodgers122.00
Jameis Winston100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
O.J. Howard66982
Mike Evans710881
DeSean Jackson58730
Cameron Brate69600
Doug Martin23310
Adam Humphries23130
Jacquizz Rodgers1190
Charles Sims2370
Chris Godwin Jr.1150

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor20/3326810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy23914.02
Tyrod Taylor6538.80
Deonte Thompson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deonte Thompson441070
Nick O'Leary22580
LeSean McCoy57310
Logan Thomas11221
Zay Jones29170
Taiwan Jones12110
Andre Holmes23110
Jordan Matthews23100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.58