2017 · Week 7
Final
New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 74°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.071
- 44.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.135
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.38CPOE-0.28
- 42.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.79Points / drive1.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 32/44 | 384 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 20 | 49 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Reedy | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Howard | 6 | 6 | 98 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 7 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 20/33 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Thompson | 4 | 4 | 107 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.58