2005 · Week 2
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
35
Model margin
+6.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play-0.066
- 39.5%Success rate39.7%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.068
- 7.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 37.9%Third-down rate38.9%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.44Points / drive1.36
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.069EPA / play allowed-0.097
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. TB are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 12/29 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2/3 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 16/22 | 136 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.15