2000 · Week 13
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
37
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.016
- 39.9%Success rate39.8%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- 38.0%Third-down rate33.9%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.36Points / drive1.46
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.114
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. TB are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 24/39 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 4/10 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 13 | 102 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 5 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kwame Cavil | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 10/18 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 20 | 106 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Shaun King | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85