2000 · Week 13

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

17·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -4

Total

37

Model margin

+2.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.059EPA / play-0.016
  • 39.9%Success rate39.8%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.086
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.46
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.114

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. TB are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11TB @ BUF32–44BUF
2023 · W8TB @ BUF18–24BUF
2021 · W14BUF @ TB27–33TB
2017 · W7TB @ BUF27–30BUF
2013 · W14BUF @ TB6–27TB
2009 · W2TB @ BUF20–33BUF
2005 · W2BUF @ TB3–19TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–TB
TBQ1 15:00530Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 12:1744Punt0–3
TBQ1 9:5834Punt0–3
BUFQ1 8:2739Punt0–3
TBQ1 6:233-22Punt0–3
BUFQ1 5:03921Punt0–3
TBQ1 1:253-6Punt0–3
BUFQ2 14:511057Touchdown7–3
TBQ2 9:42724Punt7–3
BUFQ2 6:3935Punt7–3
TBQ2 5:25739Touchdown7–10
BUFQ2 3:341053Missed field goal7–10
TBQ2 0:0200End of half7–10
BUFQ3 15:00743Punt7–10
TBQ3 10:583-4Punt7–10
BUFQ3 9:26853Turnover7–10
TBQ3 5:4934Punt7–10
BUFQ3 4:1038Punt7–10
TBQ3 2:181070Touchdown7–17
BUFQ4 11:38569Touchdown14–17
TBQ4 8:5644Punt14–17
BUFQ4 6:4830Opp touchdown14–24
TBQ4 5:3400Opp touchdown14–24
BUFQ4 5:341044Field goal17–24
TBQ4 2:27239Touchdown17–31
BUFQ4 2:081367Turnover17–31
TBQ4 0:2100End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson24/3926220
Doug Flutie4/105700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson8324.00
Antowain Smith11302.70
Peerless Price12727.00
Eric Moulds12020.00
Rob Johnson4194.80
Doug Flutie2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds8131021
Jay Riemersma511820
Peerless Price69440
Jeremy McDaniel34430
Shawn Bryson12170
Sheldon Jackson23150
Antowain Smith1170
Kwame Cavil1450

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King10/1810600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn201065.32
Shaun King581.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacquez Green47510
Warrick Dunn11230
Dave Moore35170
Keyshawn Johnson23150
Reidel Anthony0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.85