2021 · Week 14

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

27·33

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.143
  • 47.4%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.048EPA / rush+0.024
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.95CPOE+1.50
  • 47.6%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.51
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. TB are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11TB @ BUF32–44BUF
2023 · W8TB @ BUF18–24BUF
2017 · W7TB @ BUF27–30BUF
2013 · W14BUF @ TB6–27TB
2009 · W2TB @ BUF20–33BUF
2005 · W2BUF @ TB3–19TB
2000 · W13BUF @ TB17–31TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–TB
TBQ1 15:00321Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:50515Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:55662Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 8:13521Punt0–7
TBQ1 5:191480Field goal0–10
BUFQ2 13:36777Field goal3–10
TBQ2 9:28864Touchdown3–17
BUFQ2 7:11513Punt3–17
TBQ2 4:121072Touchdown3–24
BUFQ2 1:29310Turnover3–24
TBQ2 1:0035Punt3–24
BUFQ2 0:40422Punt3–24
TBQ2 0:0100End of half3–24
BUFQ3 15:00517Turnover on downs3–24
TBQ3 12:2848Turnover on downs3–24
BUFQ3 11:09981Touchdown10–24
TBQ3 7:2958Punt10–24
BUFQ3 4:53522Punt10–24
TBQ3 2:111184Field goal10–27
BUFQ4 11:20670Touchdown17–27
TBQ4 9:0731Punt17–27
BUFQ4 8:08942Touchdown24–27
TBQ4 4:53610Punt24–27
BUFQ4 3:051370Field goal27–27
TBQ4 0:2200End of half27–27
BUFOT36Punt27–27
TBOT775Touchdown27–33

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen36/5430821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen121099.11
Devin Singletary45213.00
Matt Breida3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs713740
Cole Beasley911640
Dawson Knox79601
Gabe Davis58431
Devin Singletary67370
Emmanuel Sanders11250
Isaiah McKenzie1150
Matt Breida0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady31/4636320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette191135.91
Tom Brady7162.31
Ronald Jones382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.10151050
Mike Evans66911
Rob Gronkowski59620
Breshad Perriman12581
Leonard Fournette47190
Tyler Johnson33170
Cameron Brate24110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.01