2021 · Week 14
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.143
- 47.4%Success rate49.9%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.048EPA / rush+0.024
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.95CPOE+1.50
- 47.6%Third-down rate48.0%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.52Points / drive2.51
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. TB are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 36/54 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 109 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 13 | 74 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 9 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 7 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/46 | 363 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 19 | 113 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 10 | 15 | 105 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 58 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.01