2023 · Week 8
Final
New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 66°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
43
Model margin
+3.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.097
- 40.5%Success rate48.4%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.166EPA / rush+0.010
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.25CPOE+4.96
- 42.2%Third-down rate49.7%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.86Points / drive2.33
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/42 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 31/40 | 324 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 6 | 92 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 9 | 12 | 87 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21