2023 · Week 8

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

18·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 66°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -10

Total

43

Model margin

+3.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBills
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.097
  • 40.5%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.166EPA / rush+0.010
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.25CPOE+4.96
  • 42.2%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.33
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11TB @ BUF32–44BUF
2021 · W14BUF @ TB27–33TB
2017 · W7TB @ BUF27–30BUF
2013 · W14BUF @ TB6–27TB
2009 · W2TB @ BUF20–33BUF
2005 · W2BUF @ TB3–19TB
2000 · W13BUF @ TB17–31TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–BUF
TBQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:35977Field goal0–3
TBQ1 8:04727Missed field goal0–3
BUFQ1 4:21969Turnover on downs0–3
TBQ2 14:5732Punt0–3
BUFQ2 13:48523Touchdown0–10
TBQ2 11:03751Field goal3–10
BUFQ2 7:4010Turnover3–10
TBQ2 7:33223Touchdown10–10
BUFQ2 6:46975Touchdown10–17
TBQ2 2:40739Punt10–17
BUFQ2 0:1100End of half10–17
BUFQ3 15:00970Touchdown10–24
TBQ3 10:40418Punt10–24
BUFQ3 7:40626Punt10–24
TBQ3 4:5339Punt10–24
BUFQ3 2:32936Punt10–24
TBQ4 14:0236Punt10–24
BUFQ4 12:58523Punt10–24
TBQ4 10:052086Touchdown18–24
BUFQ4 2:44629Punt18–24
TBQ4 0:21420End of half18–24

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield25/4223720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White9394.30
Baker Mayfield3196.30
Chris Godwin Jr.11414.00
Chase Edmonds351.70
Ke'Shawn Vaughn111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rachaad White77700
Chris Godwin Jr.57541
Mike Evans36391
Cade Otton46270
Trey Palmer36220
Chase Edmonds23160
Rakim Jarrett1390
Payne Durham0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen31/4032421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook14674.80
Josh Allen7415.91
Latavius Murray571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir66920
Gabe Davis912871
Stefon Diggs912700
Dalton Kincaid57651
James Cook1160
Latavius Murray1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.21