2009 · Week 2
Final
Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 74°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.125
- 36.1%Success rate38.0%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.122
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.15CPOE-1.89
- 33.0%Third-down rate26.3%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 1.06Points / drive1.20
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 26/50 | 296 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 7 | 10 | 90 | 1 |
| Maurice Stovall | 3 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 7 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Michael Clayton | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 3 | 9 | 24 | 1 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 21/31 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 28 | 163 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Omon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Schouman | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Josh Reed | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Xavier Omon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.59
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.14