2009 · Week 2

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Byron Leftwich

20·33

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 74°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBills
  • -0.156EPA / play-0.125
  • 36.1%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.122
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.129
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -5.15CPOE-1.89
  • 33.0%Third-down rate26.3%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.20
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11TB @ BUF32–44BUF
2023 · W8TB @ BUF18–24BUF
2021 · W14BUF @ TB27–33TB
2017 · W7TB @ BUF27–30BUF
2013 · W14BUF @ TB6–27TB
2005 · W2BUF @ TB3–19TB
2000 · W13BUF @ TB17–31TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–BUF
TBQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:20454Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:31955Opp touchdown0–14
TBQ1 6:16628Turnover0–14
BUFQ1 2:12519Field goal0–17
TBQ1 0:09577Touchdown7–17
BUFQ2 12:55818Field goal7–20
TBQ2 9:50728Punt7–20
BUFQ2 7:03413Punt7–20
TBQ2 5:48310Punt7–20
BUFQ2 3:23971Turnover13–20
TBQ2 0:3218Touchdown14–20
BUFQ2 0:27342End of half14–20
BUFQ3 15:00626Punt14–20
TBQ3 11:2836Punt14–20
BUFQ3 9:4165Punt14–20
TBQ3 7:09525Turnover on downs14–20
BUFQ3 4:56424Turnover14–20
TBQ3 3:093-3Punt14–20
BUFQ3 1:581264Field goal14–23
TBQ4 11:2337Punt14–23
BUFQ4 10:23349Touchdown14–30
TBQ4 9:161490Touchdown20–30
BUFQ4 5:27553Field goal20–33
TBQ4 1:571224End of half20–33

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich26/5029632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Ward9323.60
Earnest Graham2168.00
Cadillac Williams791.30
Byron Leftwich100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow710901
Maurice Stovall36800
Cadillac Williams79561
Michael Clayton24270
Jerramy Stevens39241
Sammie Stroughter13100
Derrick Ward1250
Earnest Graham1130
Clifton Smith1210
Brian Clark0400

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards21/3123021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson281635.80
Trent Edwards3248.00
Terrell Owens11313.00
Roscoe Parrish199.00
Xavier Omon294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derek Schouman67620
Terrell Owens35521
Josh Reed44460
Lee Evans15321
Fred Jackson68250
Shawn Nelson11130
Xavier Omon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.59
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.14