2025 · Week 11
Final
New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 38°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play+0.145
- 43.3%Success rate48.8%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.087EPA / rush+0.039
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.0%
- -2.55CPOE+3.77
- 41.0%Third-down rate46.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.89Points / drive2.73
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/28 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 19 | 106 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/30 | 317 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 3 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Shavers | 4 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Keleki Latu | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.48