2025 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

32·44

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 38°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBills
  • +0.006EPA / play+0.145
  • 43.3%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.087EPA / rush+0.039
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.0%
  • -2.55CPOE+3.77
  • 41.0%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.73
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. BUF are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8TB @ BUF18–24BUF
2021 · W14BUF @ TB27–33TB
2017 · W7TB @ BUF27–30BUF
2013 · W14BUF @ TB6–27TB
2009 · W2TB @ BUF20–33BUF
2005 · W2BUF @ TB3–19TB
2000 · W13BUF @ TB17–31TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–BUF
TBQ1 15:00726Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:3720Turnover0–0
TBQ1 10:2632Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 8:541036Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 4:091164Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 12:00667Touchdown10–14
TBQ2 8:52666Touchdown17–14
BUFQ2 5:3748Turnover17–14
TBQ2 4:23625Punt17–14
BUFQ2 1:08577Touchdown17–21
TBQ2 0:36448Field goal20–21
BUFQ3 15:00311Punt20–21
TBQ3 12:4539Punt20–21
TBQ3 11:12743Touchdown26–21
BUFQ3 7:26425Field goal26–24
TBQ3 5:0134Turnover26–30
BUFQ3 3:53125Touchdown26–31
TBQ3 3:48962Touchdown32–31
BUFQ4 13:38886Touchdown32–37
TBQ4 9:0638Punt32–37
BUFQ4 7:15970Touchdown32–44
TBQ4 2:35611Turnover32–44
BUFQ4 1:4439Punt32–44
TBQ4 0:3800End of half32–44

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield16/2817311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Tucker191065.62
Rachaad White10515.10
Baker Mayfield5397.81
Sterling Shepard177.00
Tez Johnson300.00
Teddy Bridgewater1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard45540
Emeka Egbuka59400
Sean Tucker22341
Cade Otton25280
Rachaad White23110
Tez Johnson1360

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/3031732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook16483.00
Josh Allen6406.73
Ty Johnson199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyrell Shavers45901
James Cook33661
Ty Johnson22611
Gabe Davis34400
Dawson Knox13230
Curtis Samuel23190
Josh Palmer25170
Keleki Latu1140
Mecole Hardman0100
Khalil Shakir13-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.48