Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play-0.156
- 40.7%Success rate38.3%
- -0.116EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.181
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- -3.08CPOE-4.13
- 36.4%Third-down rate31.0%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.07Points / drive1.03
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 17/29 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
| Case Keenum | 16/29 | 159 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 13 | 21 | 154 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 8 | 14 | 73 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 4 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 12/27 | 117 | 2 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Ace Sanders | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 7 | 13 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
6.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45