2013 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

20·27

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.109EPA / play-0.156
  • 40.7%Success rate38.3%
  • -0.116EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.181
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -3.08CPOE-4.13
  • 36.4%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.03
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001475Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 8:48524Punt0–7
JAXQ1 6:39415Punt0–7
HOUQ1 4:34820Punt0–7
JAXQ1 0:11548Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 13:41617Punt0–14
JAXQ2 10:1130Punt0–14
HOUQ2 8:501494Touchdown7–14
JAXQ2 1:5348Punt7–14
HOUQ2 1:2029Turnover7–14
JAXQ2 0:54617Field goal7–17
HOUQ2 0:0300End of half7–17
HOUQ3 15:00623Punt7–17
JAXQ3 12:0637Punt7–17
HOUQ3 9:49430Field goal10–17
JAXQ3 8:29771Touchdown10–24
HOUQ3 6:1234Punt10–24
JAXQ3 5:1832Punt10–24
HOUQ3 4:10776Touchdown17–24
JAXQ3 1:08314Punt17–24
HOUQ4 14:521160Field goal20–24
JAXQ4 11:31423Punt20–24
HOUQ4 9:221467Turnover on downs20–24
JAXQ4 3:3751Punt20–24
HOUQ4 2:2120Turnover20–24
JAXQ4 2:0830Field goal20–27
HOUQ4 0:251-18End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub17/2919811
Case Keenum16/2915911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate14533.80
Case Keenum11313.00
Dennis Johnson3103.30
Matt Schaub177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson13211540
DeAndre Hopkins37760
Garrett Graham814731
Keshawn Martin46281
Ryan Griffin13100
DeVier Posey1190
Dennis Johnson1140
Ben Tate2430

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne12/2711720
Ace Sanders1/12110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew141037.40
Chad Henne4338.30
Jordan Todman7142.00
Ace Sanders100.00
Denard Robinson2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis24421
Ace Sanders35260
Jordan Todman12211
Maurice Jones-Drew23200
Mike Brown37160
Cecil Shorts27131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

6.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45