Closing spread
NYJ -6
Total
34
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 9/15 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 19 | 144 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Thomas Jones | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Clowney | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Wallace Wright | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.