Closing spread
NYJ -6
Total
34
Model margin
+0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jets
- OutBrad SmithWRQuadricep· DNP
- OutJerricho CotcheryWRHamstring· DNP
- OutLito SheppardCBQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableDamien WoodyTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDonald StricklandCBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBraylon EdwardsWRQuadricep· Full
- ProbableBryan ThomasLBWrist· Full
- ProbableDavid HarrisLBWrist· Full
- ProbableKerry RhodesSKnee· Full
- ProbableLarry IzzoLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMarques MurrellLBHead· Full
- ProbableShaun EllisDEKnee· Full
- ProbableWallace WrightWRKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutCornell GreenTCalf· DNP
- OutDarren McFaddenRBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutNick MillerWRShin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRicky BrownLBAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRobert GalleryGFibula· DNP
- QuestionableChaz SchilensWRFoot· Limited
- QuestionableGreg EllisDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDEIllness· DNP
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEIllness· Full
- ProbableCooper CarlisleGAnkle· Full
- ProbableLuke LawtonRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableNnamdi AsomughaCBEye· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 14:48 | 4 | 4 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:27 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:43 | 6 | 36 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:01 | 2 | 4 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:20 | 7 | 47 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:24 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:46 | 4 | 40 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 11:22 | 11 | 88 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:14 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 24–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–0 |
| LV | Q3 13:37 | 10 | 51 | Turnover | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:26 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 31–0 |
| LV | Q3 5:28 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 31–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:25 | 12 | 54 | Missed field goal | 31–0 |
| LV | Q4 11:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–0 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:57 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 38–0 |
| LV | Q4 6:30 | 12 | 80 | Turnover on downs | 38–0 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:21 | 3 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 38–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 9/15 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 19 | 144 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Thomas Jones | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Clowney | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Wallace Wright | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.