Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
40
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 27/44 | 369 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 5 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 7 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.