2011 · Week 3

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

24·34

Raiders

Oakland

QB Jason Campbell

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

40

Model margin

+2.3est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

OAK lead 11–8 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10NYJ @ LV12–16RAIDERS
2020 · W13LV @ NYJ31–28RAIDERS
2019 · W12OAK @ NYJ3–34NYJ
2017 · W2NYJ @ OAK20–45RAIDERS
2015 · W8NYJ @ OAK20–34RAIDERS
2014 · W1OAK @ NYJ14–19NYJ
2013 · W14OAK @ NYJ27–37NYJ
2009 · W7NYJ @ OAK38–0NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–OAK
LVQ1 15:00651Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 12:36539Punt0–7
LVQ1 10:2739Punt0–7
NYJQ1 8:30476Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 6:3738Punt7–7
NYJQ1 4:3210Turnover7–7
LVQ1 4:2230Punt7–7
NYJQ1 2:351064Touchdown14–7
LVQ2 13:241144Missed field goal14–7
NYJQ2 10:01951Field goal17–7
LVQ2 5:03480Touchdown17–14
NYJQ2 3:4058Punt17–14
LVQ2 1:44851Field goal17–17
NYJQ3 15:00714Punt17–17
LVQ3 11:3838Punt17–17
NYJQ3 9:393-5Punt17–17
LVQ3 8:2552Punt17–17
NYJQ3 6:491023Turnover on downs17–17
LVQ3 2:27463Touchdown17–24
NYJQ3 0:4000Touchdown17–24
LVQ3 0:34213Touchdown17–31
NYJQ4 14:5825Punt17–31
NYJQ4 13:3516Punt17–31
NYJQ4 13:0038Punt17–31
LVQ4 10:5311Punt17–31
LVQ4 10:0829Punt17–31
NYJQ4 8:391093Touchdown24–31
LVQ4 5:33844Field goal24–34
NYJQ4 2:37649Turnover on downs24–34
NYJQ4 1:1117Turnover on downs24–34
NYJQ4 0:5211Turnover on downs24–34
LVQ4 0:4911End of half24–34
LVQ4 0:0000End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez27/4436921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene15593.90
LaDainian Tomlinson6386.30
Mark Sanchez221.01
Jeremy Kerley1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LaDainian Tomlinson571161
Dustin Keller59870
Plaxico Burress36551
Shonn Greene77470
Derrick Mason610450
Santonio Holmes12190
Matthew Mulligan0100
Patrick Turner0100
Jeff Cumberland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.26

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.