Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.034
- 44.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.190EPA / dropback+0.156
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.110
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.6%
- +5.19CPOE-1.63
- 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.17Points / drive1.99
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/25 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Willson | 3 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/29 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.41