2013 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

17·19

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.034
  • 44.6%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.190EPA / dropback+0.156
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.110
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +5.19CPOE-1.63
  • 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.99
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:4430Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:4368Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:48956Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 5:0459Punt0–3
SFQ1 1:5234Field goal0–6
SEAQ1 0:58880Touchdown7–6
SFQ2 12:171035Field goal7–9
SEAQ2 7:56772Touchdown14–9
SFQ2 3:471182Touchdown14–16
SEAQ2 0:0600End of half14–16
SFQ3 15:00622Punt14–16
SEAQ3 11:11734Punt14–16
SFQ3 7:35648Turnover14–16
SEAQ3 4:07730Punt14–16
SFQ3 0:233-12Punt14–16
SEAQ4 14:1535Punt14–16
SFQ4 12:3668Punt14–16
SEAQ4 9:17614Field goal17–16
SFQ4 6:201076Field goal17–19
SEAQ4 0:2610Turnover17–19
SFQ4 0:0900End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2519911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch20723.61
Robert Turbin2126.00
Russell Wilson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luke Willson34701
Golden Tate68650
Doug Baldwin34360
Jermaine Kearse25150
Zach Miller13130
Robert Turbin0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick15/2917511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore171106.50
Colin Kaepernick9313.40
Kendall Hunter4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin68930
Michael Crabtree48400
Vernon Davis23211
Frank Gore0100
Mario Manningham0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.41