Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
41
Model margin
+2.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutScott WellsCFibula· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon McGeeCBFoot· DNP
- ProbableDaren BatesLBConcussion· Full
- ProbableEugene SimsDENeck· Full
- ProbableHarvey DahlGKnee· Full
- ProbableJake LongTConcussion· Full
Cardinals
- QuestionableCarson PalmerQBright Elbow· Limited
- QuestionableRob HouslerTEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAndre EllingtonRBKnee· Full
- ProbableDave ZastudilPright Ankle· Full
- ProbableJim DrayTEBack· Full
- ProbableKevin MinterLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMarcus BenardLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMichael FloydWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableRashad JohnsonSRibs· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:32 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:12 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:46 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:46 | 7 | 79 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 10:53 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 4:31 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:50 | 6 | 60 | End of half | 3–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–21 |
| LA | Q3 14:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q3 12:30 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LA | Q3 10:33 | 3 | -1 | Safety | 3–23 |
| ARI | Q3 9:10 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 3–23 |
| LA | Q3 5:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–23 |
| ARI | Q3 4:06 | 5 | 15 | Missed field goal | 3–23 |
| LA | Q3 1:06 | 3 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| ARI | Q4 14:57 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 10–23 |
| LA | Q4 10:44 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 10–23 |
| ARI | Q4 8:45 | 8 | 54 | Missed field goal | 10–23 |
| LA | Q4 4:27 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–23 |
| ARI | Q4 4:20 | 7 | 22 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| LA | Q4 1:55 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 10–30 |
| ARI | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/32 | 269 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 12 | 12 | 96 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.