Closing spread
CIN -2
Total
44
Model margin
+0.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.001
- 43.4%Success rate42.4%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.173
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.24CPOE+3.30
- 41.9%Third-down rate37.6%
- 73.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.76Points / drive1.82
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/44 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 9 | 18 | 93 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 9 | 48 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/25 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 24 | 57 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79