2013 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

20·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

CIN -2

Total

44

Model margin

+0.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.001
  • 43.4%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.173
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.24CPOE+3.30
  • 41.9%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 73.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.82
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00628Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:5349Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 10:4021Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 9:5866Punt0–7
PITQ1 6:36847Touchdown0–14
CINQ1 2:1631Opp touchdown0–21
CINQ1 1:1267Punt0–21
PITQ2 14:311060Field goal0–24
CINQ2 9:36947Touchdown7–24
PITQ2 5:14946Field goal7–27
CINQ2 1:14421End of half7–27
CINQ3 15:00419Turnover7–27
PITQ3 13:33317Turnover7–27
CINQ3 12:22518Punt7–27
PITQ3 10:37850Field goal7–30
CINQ3 6:181363Touchdown14–30
PITQ4 14:09612Punt14–30
CINQ4 10:121075Touchdown20–30
PITQ4 5:46618Punt20–30
CINQ4 3:17513Turnover on downs20–30
PITQ4 2:36411End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton25/4423020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard13332.51
Andy Dalton4205.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green918930
Marvin Jones59481
Tyler Eifert33331
Jermaine Gresham34230
Mohamed Sanu34200
Giovani Bernard24130
Andrew Hawkins0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger20/2519111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell24572.41
Jonathan Dwyer6264.30
Felix Jones5224.40
Antonio Brown111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown56661
Le'Veon Bell55500
Emmanuel Sanders56380
Heath Miller44350
Jerricho Cotchery1320
Matt Spaeth0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79