2013 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Matt Flynn

37·36

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4

Total

49.5

Model margin

+8.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.072EPA / play+0.062
  • 45.4%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.087
  • +0.003EPA / rush+0.011
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.82CPOE+0.26
  • 40.8%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.19Points / drive2.21
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DAL
DALQ1 15:00752Field goal0–3
GBQ1 10:56541Field goal3–3
DALQ1 7:40675Field goal3–6
GBQ1 4:5231Punt3–6
DALQ1 2:25465Touchdown3–13
GBQ1 0:284-5Punt3–13
DALQ2 14:06828Punt3–13
GBQ2 11:22515Punt3–13
DALQ2 9:20748Field goal3–16
GBQ2 5:54412Turnover3–16
DALQ2 4:383-11Field goal3–19
GBQ2 3:45515Punt3–19
DALQ2 1:59675Touchdown3–26
GBQ2 0:24453End of half3–26
GBQ3 15:0000Touchdown3–26
GBQ3 15:00480Touchdown10–26
DALQ3 13:081050Field goal10–26
DALQ3 7:5923Field goal10–29
DALQ3 6:3900Field goal10–29
GBQ3 6:331280Touchdown17–29
DALQ3 1:093-13Punt17–29
GBQ3 0:01522Touchdown24–29
DALQ4 12:471070Touchdown24–36
GBQ4 7:551080Touchdown31–36
DALQ4 4:17515Turnover31–36
GBQ4 2:46842Touchdown37–36
DALQ4 1:3129Turnover37–36
GBQ4 1:2200End of half37–36

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn26/3929941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy211416.71
James Starks3124.00
Matt Flynn3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarrett Boykin66830
Andrew Quarless66661
Jordy Nelson59611
James Jones37491
Eddie Lacy45300
James Starks11111
Ryan Taylor0100
Brandon Bostick0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo29/4835822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray181347.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant11171531
Jason Witten48711
Terrance Williams45460
Miles Austin24350
DeMarco Murray47190
Cole Beasley34190
Gavin Escobar12150
James Hanna0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.4%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+6.75
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+8.26