Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
49.5
Model margin
+8.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.062
- 45.4%Success rate47.2%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.087
- +0.003EPA / rush+0.011
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.82CPOE+0.26
- 40.8%Third-down rate35.6%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.19Points / drive2.21
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 26/39 | 299 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 21 | 141 | 6.7 | 1 |
| James Starks | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Boykin | 6 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 6 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| James Jones | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Ryan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 29/48 | 358 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 134 | 7.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 11 | 17 | 153 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.4%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+6.75
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.26