Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutAnthony FasanoTEConcussion· Limited
- OutBranden AlbertTKnee· DNP
- OutJustin HoustonLBElbow· Limited
- QuestionableDexter McClusterWRAnkle· DNP
- ProbableAnthony ShermanRBKnee· Full
- ProbableMarcus CooperCBBack· Full
- ProbableNico JohnsonLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableRodney HudsonCElbow· Full
- ProbableRon ParkerCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableSean McGrathTEKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBAnkle· DNP
- OutJeremy StewartRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulTyvon BranchSAnkle· Limited
- DoubtfulVance WalkerDTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableDenarius MooreWRShoulder· Limited
- ProbableNick KasaTEConcussion· Limited
- ProbableSio MooreLBNeck· Limited
- ProbableJason HunterDEFoot· Full
- ProbableKhalif BarnesTKnee· Full
- ProbableMike BrisielGAnkle· Full
- ProbableRashad JenningsRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableTony PashosTFoot· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:38 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 11:05 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LV | Q1 7:27 | 5 | 33 | Opp touchdown | 21–3 |
| LV | Q1 5:07 | 14 | 54 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| KC | Q2 14:40 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LV | Q2 11:12 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| KC | Q2 10:20 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| LV | Q2 8:59 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 34–10 |
| KC | Q2 5:48 | 1 | 16 | Touchdown | 35–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:42 | 9 | 42 | Touchdown | 35–17 |
| KC | Q2 3:00 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 35–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:30 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 35–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 84 | Touchdown | 35–24 |
| KC | Q3 12:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 35–24 |
| LV | Q3 10:15 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 35–31 |
| KC | Q3 4:56 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 42–31 |
| LV | Q3 3:34 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 42–31 |
| KC | Q3 3:21 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 49–31 |
| LV | Q3 1:20 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 49–31 |
| KC | Q4 14:41 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 49–31 |
| LV | Q4 13:53 | 6 | 17 | Turnover | 49–31 |
| KC | Q4 11:00 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 56–31 |
| LV | Q4 8:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 56–31 |
| KC | Q4 6:58 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 56–31 |
| LV | Q4 3:58 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 56–31 |
| KC | Q4 2:50 | 4 | 16 | End of half | 56–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/20 | 287 | 5 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3/5 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 8 | 195 | 4 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.