2011 · Week 5
Final
Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+7.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.009
- 43.0%Success rate40.8%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.091
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.20CPOE-0.45
- 37.0%Third-down rate29.6%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.39Points / drive1.87
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 17/33 | 187 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Franklin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 11/19 | 170 | 3 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3/3 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 125 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 3 | 39 | 2 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.64