2011 · Week 5

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

3·48

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+7.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge map49ers
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.009
  • 43.0%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.091
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.20CPOE-0.45
  • 37.0%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.87
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SF @ TB19–30TB
2024 · W10SF @ TB23–20SF
2023 · W11TB @ SF14–27SF
2022 · W14TB @ SF7–35SF
2019 · W1SF @ TB31–17SF
2018 · W12SF @ TB9–27TB
2016 · W7TB @ SF34–17TB
2013 · W15SF @ TB33–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SF
TBQ1 15:0048Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:54445Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:261274Field goal3–7
SFQ1 3:58764Turnover3–7
TBQ1 0:1222Opp touchdown3–14
TBQ2 14:46739Turnover3–14
SFQ2 10:31633Touchdown3–21
TBQ2 7:5632Punt3–21
SFQ2 6:52532Field goal3–24
TBQ2 4:2930Punt3–24
SFQ2 3:0432Punt3–24
TBQ2 2:01620Punt3–24
SFQ2 0:331-2End of half3–24
SFQ3 15:00985Touchdown3–31
TBQ3 9:43762Turnover on downs3–31
SFQ3 7:02949Field goal3–34
SFQ3 2:4000Field goal3–34
TBQ3 2:36316Turnover3–34
SFQ3 1:07422Touchdown3–41
TBQ4 14:52935Punt3–41
SFQ4 9:571190Touchdown3–48
TBQ4 3:48614Punt3–48
SFQ4 1:0700End of half3–48

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman17/3318702
Josh Johnson1/2700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount10343.40
Earnest Graham5306.00
Kregg Lumpkin273.50
Josh Freeman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow59540
Arrelious Benn34460
LeGarrette Blount23310
Mike Williams49280
Dezmon Briscoe22180
Preston Parker13130
Kregg Lumpkin1140
Micheal Spurlock0200
Collin Franklin0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith11/1917030
Colin Kaepernick3/33500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore201256.31
Kendall Hunter9657.20
Ted Ginn12424.00
Anthony Dixon242.01
Colin Kaepernick2-2-1.00
Vernon Davis1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Morgan56750
Vernon Davis33392
Delanie Walker23371
Michael Crabtree25360
Frank Gore22180
Kyle Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%5.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.64