2012 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.137
  • 46.4%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.234EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.192EPA / rush+0.030
  • 7.3%Explosive rate12.8%
  • +5.71CPOE+4.84
  • 44.9%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.11
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–WAS
ATLQ1 15:001144Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:10630Punt0–0
ATLQ1 6:2433Punt0–0
WASQ1 5:1633Punt0–0
ATLQ1 3:46623Punt0–0
WASQ1 0:07634Punt0–0
ATLQ2 12:27627Opp touchdown0–7
ATLQ2 10:111050Turnover0–7
WASQ2 4:55555Missed field goal0–7
ATLQ2 2:16974Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 0:30316End of half7–7
WASQ3 15:00633Punt7–7
ATLQ3 11:0936Punt7–7
WASQ3 9:25734Field goal7–10
ATLQ3 5:56936Punt7–10
WASQ3 2:1933Punt7–10
ATLQ3 0:55647Touchdown14–10
WASQ4 13:23378Touchdown14–17
ATLQ4 12:24940Field goal17–17
WASQ4 7:4237Punt17–17
ATLQ4 5:40669Touchdown24–17
WASQ4 2:46323Turnover24–17
ATLQ4 1:5334Punt24–17
WASQ4 1:2110Turnover24–17
ATLQ4 1:0500End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan34/5234521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner17643.81
Matt Ryan571.40
Harry Douglas155.00
Jacquizz Rodgers341.30
Julio Jones111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez13141231
Julio Jones1015941
Roddy White46680
Harry Douglas25340
Jacquizz Rodgers1280
Tommy Gallarda1270
Michael Turner2520

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins5/911112
Robert Griffin III10/159100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris181156.40
Robert Griffin III177.00
Ryan Grant155.00
Leonard Hankerson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss25801
Fred Davis57540
Pierre Garcon37240
Alfred Morris11200
Aldrick Robinson11100
Evan Royster1170
Josh Morgan1140
Leonard Hankerson1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.26