2012 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.137
- 46.4%Success rate46.7%
- +0.234EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.192EPA / rush+0.030
- 7.3%Explosive rate12.8%
- +5.71CPOE+4.84
- 44.9%Third-down rate35.5%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 2.31Points / drive2.11
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 34/52 | 345 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 13 | 14 | 123 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 10 | 15 | 94 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tommy Gallarda | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 5/9 | 111 | 1 | 2 |
| Robert Griffin III | 10/15 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 18 | 115 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 2 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Fred Davis | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26