2013 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

17·10

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -8

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.059
  • 41.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.101
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +3.74CPOE+5.19
  • 35.3%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.71Points / drive2.17
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:00671Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 11:36421Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:4936Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:4737Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:08428Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 4:441275Field goal0–3
ARIQ2 13:423-1Punt0–3
SEAQ2 11:383-2Punt0–3
ARIQ2 10:361670Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 2:1539Punt3–3
ARIQ2 1:2539Turnover3–3
SEAQ2 0:4232Missed field goal3–3
ARIQ2 0:1700End of half3–3
SEAQ3 15:00529Punt3–3
ARIQ3 12:5438Punt3–3
SEAQ3 11:0732Punt3–3
ARIQ3 10:0147Punt3–3
SEAQ3 7:5737Punt3–3
ARIQ3 6:3135Punt3–3
SEAQ3 5:103-5Punt3–3
ARIQ3 3:30512Field goal6–3
SEAQ3 0:2700Turnover6–3
ARIQ3 0:2131Turnover6–3
SEAQ4 14:103-6Punt6–3
ARIQ4 13:1359Field goal9–3
SEAQ4 10:39653Touchdown9–10
ARIQ4 7:261175Touchdown17–10
SEAQ4 2:1310Turnover17–10
ARIQ4 1:56111End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer13/2517814

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington15644.30
Rashard Mendenhall21633.00
Stepfan Taylor2157.50
Carson Palmer5-3-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brittan Golden12630
Michael Floyd15311
Andre Roberts22250
Larry Fitzgerald35180
Jake Ballard13170
Jim Dray33160
Andre Ellington2380
Rob Housler0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson11/2710811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch18713.90
Russell Wilson23216.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse37380
Golden Tate23340
Zach Miller13111
Ricardo Lockette1190
Doug Baldwin1680
Marshawn Lynch2250
Luke Willson1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.13