Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.059
- 41.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.101
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- +3.74CPOE+5.19
- 35.3%Third-down rate38.4%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.71Points / drive2.17
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 13/25 | 178 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 2 | 63 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 11/27 | 108 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.13