Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.091
- 47.9%Success rate46.4%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.234
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.192
- 12.9%Explosive rate7.3%
- +5.02CPOE+5.71
- 35.1%Third-down rate44.9%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.92Points / drive2.31
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/21 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 2 |
| LaMichael James | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 6 | 106 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/42 | 396 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 13 | 182 | 2 |
| Roddy White | 7 | 14 | 100 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.81