2012 · CON

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

28·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.091
  • 47.9%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.234
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.192
  • 12.9%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +5.02CPOE+5.71
  • 35.1%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.31
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. ATL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00780Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 11:2431Punt0–7
ATLQ1 9:431165Field goal0–10
SFQ1 3:203-3Punt0–10
ATLQ1 1:49457Touchdown0–17
SFQ2 14:541185Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 8:08420Punt7–17
SFQ2 6:24876Touchdown14–17
ATLQ2 1:55875Touchdown14–24
SFQ2 0:2511End of half14–24
SFQ3 15:00782Touchdown21–24
ATLQ3 10:47633Turnover21–24
SFQ3 7:38436Missed field goal21–24
ATLQ3 5:44944Turnover21–24
SFQ3 0:55747Turnover21–24
ATLQ4 13:2439Punt21–24
SFQ4 11:46638Touchdown28–24
ATLQ4 8:231470Turnover on downs28–24
SFQ4 1:09310Punt28–24
ATLQ4 0:06124End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/2123310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore21904.32
LaMichael James5346.81
Colin Kaepernick22110.50
Anthony Dixon144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis561061
Michael Crabtree67570
Randy Moss34460
Delanie Walker12200
LaMichael James1140
Chad Hall0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4239631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers10323.20
Michael Turner8303.80
Matt Ryan231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones11131822
Roddy White7141000
Tony Gonzalez88781
Harry Douglas33310
Jacquizz Rodgers0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

6.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.81