Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play+0.053
- 39.3%Success rate47.0%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.077
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.010
- 9.6%Explosive rate12.1%
- -2.53CPOE+0.41
- 32.9%Third-down rate42.0%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.37Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. PHI are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/32 | 208 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 133 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 5 | 5 | 95 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/38 | 213 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 7 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.21