2011 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

30·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PHI -9

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapEagles
  • -0.110EPA / play+0.053
  • 39.3%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.077
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.010
  • 9.6%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -2.53CPOE+0.41
  • 32.9%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.91
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. PHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–PHI
CHIQ1 15:001279Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 9:18620Punt7–0
CHIQ1 6:31940Punt7–0
PHIQ1 0:511047Turnover7–0
CHIQ2 11:36736Field goal10–0
PHIQ2 7:271053Field goal10–3
CHIQ2 2:0432Opp touchdown10–10
CHIQ2 1:38410Punt10–10
CHIQ2 0:5647Touchdown17–10
PHIQ2 0:43313End of half17–10
PHIQ3 15:001580Touchdown17–17
CHIQ3 8:18328Turnover17–17
PHIQ3 6:44241Touchdown17–24
CHIQ3 5:52974Field goal20–24
PHIQ3 0:2136Punt20–24
CHIQ4 14:39651Touchdown27–24
PHIQ4 12:18737Turnover on downs27–24
CHIQ4 9:251137Field goal30–24
PHIQ4 3:58733Turnover on downs30–24
CHIQ4 1:4538Punt30–24
PHIQ4 0:0310End of half30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/3220820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte241335.50
Marion Barber9313.41
Jay Cutler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett55951
Roy Williams36460
Matt Forte35170
Johnny Knox11140
Matt Spaeth22131
Devin Hester15120
Marion Barber1180
Dane Sanzenbacher0200
Kellen Davis13-10

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick21/3821301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16714.41
Mike Vick5346.80
DeSean Jackson11010.00
Ronnie Brown144.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin49630
Brent Celek79600
LeSean McCoy55460
Jason Avant23200
DeSean Jackson28160
Clay Harbor1180
Ronnie Brown0100
Riley Cooper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.21