2013 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

24·23

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

51

Model margin

-0.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.058
  • 47.2%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback-0.053
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.26CPOE-3.92
  • 35.6%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.37
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:0023Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 12:49732Punt7–0
DALQ1 9:2631Punt7–0
WASQ1 8:08619Field goal7–3
DALQ1 4:15616Punt7–3
WASQ2 14:511080Field goal7–6
DALQ2 7:36693Touchdown14–6
WASQ2 4:37950Turnover14–6
DALQ2 0:4717End of half14–6
DALQ3 15:00317Turnover14–6
WASQ3 13:29833Touchdown14–13
DALQ3 9:09421Turnover14–13
WASQ3 6:54747Touchdown14–20
DALQ3 3:413-8Punt14–20
WASQ3 2:51613Field goal14–23
DALQ4 14:561573Field goal17–23
WASQ4 6:09619Punt17–23
DALQ4 3:39987Touchdown24–23
WASQ4 1:0844Turnover on downs24–23
DALQ4 0:4000End of half24–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo17/2722621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray22964.41
Tony Romo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams46840
Dez Bryant411731
Cole Beasley22290
DeMarco Murray33151
Jason Witten22130
Miles Austin1280

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3619711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris24883.71
Kirk Cousins2105.00
Josh Morgan144.00
Roy Helu1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon11181441
Aldrick Robinson13140
Santana Moss24130
Fred Davis1190
Logan Paulsen2270
Roy Helu2250
Josh Morgan0100
Alfred Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.94