2013 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
51
Model margin
-0.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.058
- 47.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.053
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.26CPOE-3.92
- 35.6%Third-down rate40.7%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 2.21Points / drive1.37
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/27 | 226 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/36 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 24 | 88 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 11 | 18 | 144 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.94