Closing spread
SD -10
Total
50
Model margin
+2.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJeremy StewartRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMiles BurrisLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableVance WalkerDTConcussion· Limited
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSRibs· Full
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBKnee· Full
- ProbableJeron MastrudTEWrist· Full
- ProbableLucas NixGIllness· Full
- ProbableSio MooreLBIllness· Full
Chargers
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableLe'Ron McClainRBHamstring· Limited
- DNPNick HardwickCNot Injury Related
- ProbableAntonio GatesTENot Injury Related· Limited
- ProbableBront BirdLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTAnkle· Full
- ProbableEric WeddleSHamstring· Full
- ProbableJarret JohnsonLBHand· Full
- ProbableKeenan AllenWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBFoot· Full
- ProbableShareece WrightCBFoot· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:58 | 16 | 75 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 2:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 0:49 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 14:07 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 10:39 | 10 | 52 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 5:54 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 3:57 | 3 | 13 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:13 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:36 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:18 | 13 | 62 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 5:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 3:44 | 5 | 42 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| LV | Q3 0:56 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| LAC | Q3 0:50 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| LV | Q4 14:51 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| LAC | Q4 11:19 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 13–26 |
| LV | Q4 6:23 | 19 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 13–26 |
| LAC | Q4 0:54 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 13–26 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.