2013 · Week 16
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Buccaneers
- OutCarl NicksGFoot· DNP
- OutDa'Quan BowersDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMark BarronSHamstring· Limited
- ProbableDavin JosephGKnee· Limited
- ProbableAkeem SpenceDTWrist· Full
- ProbableLavonte DavidLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRHamstring· Full
Rams
- QuestionableDaryl RichardsonRBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableTavon AustinWRAnkle· DNP
- ProbableJanoris JenkinsCBBack· DNP
- ProbableMike PersonTIllness· Full
- ProbableWill WitherspoonLBIllness· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:08 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:31 | 14 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 13:48 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| LA | Q2 12:13 | 1 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 12:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 11:08 | 9 | 65 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 6:26 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:33 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 4:27 | 9 | 28 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–14 |
| TB | Q3 13:18 | 9 | 24 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| LA | Q3 9:23 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| TB | Q3 5:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–17 |
| LA | Q3 2:48 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| TB | Q4 11:15 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| LA | Q4 9:07 | 8 | 29 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| TB | Q4 3:15 | 5 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 13–23 |
| LA | Q4 1:55 | 5 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 13–23 |
| TB | Q4 0:45 | 3 | 2 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 16/26 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 20 | 37 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Eric Page | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.