2013 · Week 16
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 16/26 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 20 | 37 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Eric Page | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.