Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
44
Model margin
+0.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.156
- 42.3%Success rate38.3%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- +1.14CPOE-4.13
- 41.0%Third-down rate31.0%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.03
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/26 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 19 | 91 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 6 | 8 | 117 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 24/34 | 237 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Brown | 5 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Kerry Taylor | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Lamaar Thomas | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.45