2013 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

44

Model margin

+0.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.156
  • 42.3%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.181
  • 7.7%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +1.14CPOE-4.13
  • 41.0%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.03
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00530Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:51664Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 9:051085Touchdown3–7
TENQ1 4:4535Punt3–7
JAXQ1 3:09622Turnover on downs3–7
TENQ1 0:541457Turnover on downs3–7
JAXQ2 8:2237Punt3–7
TENQ2 7:061032Field goal6–7
JAXQ2 1:55760Touchdown6–13
TENQ2 0:43411End of half6–13
TENQ3 15:003-2Turnover6–13
JAXQ3 13:47713Field goal6–16
TENQ3 9:221180Touchdown13–16
JAXQ3 4:0134Punt13–16
TENQ3 3:12968Touchdown20–16
JAXQ4 14:25615Punt20–16
TENQ4 10:4334Punt20–16
JAXQ4 9:12949Turnover on downs20–16
TENQ4 5:21829Punt20–16
JAXQ4 1:0824Turnover20–16
TENQ4 0:4600End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick17/2618111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene19914.81
Chris Johnson22904.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington681171
Delanie Walker47350
Kendall Wright47220
Jackie Battle1140
Chris Johnson1130
Shonn Greene1100
Justin Hunter0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne24/3423721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew13453.50
Denard Robinson11111.00
Jordan Todman661.00
Chad Henne111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Brown56711
Marcedes Lewis46501
Kerry Taylor47450
Maurice Jones-Drew45240
Ace Sanders45200
Lamaar Thomas11130
Jordan Todman1250
Clay Harbor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.45