Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+6.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play+0.031
- 36.3%Success rate43.4%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.087
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.63CPOE+1.24
- 36.0%Third-down rate41.9%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 1.33Points / drive1.76
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 30/50 | 192 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 8 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 5 | 9 | 30 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/36 | 281 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 10 | 61 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.81