2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

17·34

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+6.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • -0.096EPA / play+0.031
  • 36.3%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback+0.109
  • -0.263EPA / rush-0.087
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.63CPOE+1.24
  • 36.0%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.76
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
BALQ1 14:4231Field goal3–0
CINQ1 13:48724Turnover3–0
BALQ1 9:031256Field goal6–0
CINQ1 2:26478Touchdown6–7
BALQ1 0:17312Punt6–7
CINQ2 13:43737Punt6–7
BALQ2 9:5431Punt6–7
CINQ2 8:53622Field goal6–10
BALQ2 6:36310Punt6–10
CINQ2 4:41552Touchdown6–17
BALQ2 1:51510Punt6–17
CINQ2 0:2100End of half6–17
BALQ3 15:003-9Punt6–17
CINQ3 13:46617Turnover6–17
BALQ3 12:14626Field goal9–17
CINQ3 9:3033Punt9–17
BALQ3 7:34740Touchdown17–17
CINQ3 5:131376Touchdown17–24
BALQ4 13:2910Turnover17–24
CINQ4 13:1630Field goal17–27
BALQ4 12:1934Punt17–27
CINQ4 10:47558Turnover17–27
BALQ4 8:2350Turnover17–27
CINQ4 7:50626Punt17–33
BALQ4 4:1510Opp touchdown17–34
BALQ4 4:071371Turnover on downs17–34
CINQ4 0:2000End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco30/5019213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce5285.60
Ray Rice6152.50
Bernard Scott231.50
Joe Flacco111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta811630
Ray Rice77350
Marlon Brown59301
Torrey Smith37270
Bernard Pierce44180
Jacoby Jones18110
Bernard Scott1180
Tandon Doss1100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3628124

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis11666.00
Andy Dalton6233.81
Giovani Bernard13221.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Hawkins35740
A.J. Green410611
Marvin Jones57611
Giovani Bernard57510
Mohamed Sanu12120
Orson Charles1280
Alex Smith1170
Dane Sanzenbacher1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.81