Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.017
- 43.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.002
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.2%
- -3.33CPOE-2.09
- 42.9%Third-down rate36.4%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.75Points / drive1.75
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/33 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ogletree | 5 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/33 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 14 | 115 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.31