2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

13·14

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Matt Cassel

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

50

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.017
  • 43.1%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.002
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -3.33CPOE-2.09
  • 42.9%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.75
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:01618Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:21738Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:4935Punt0–0
MINQ1 3:33269Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 2:4133Punt0–7
MINQ1 0:311254Turnover0–7
DETQ2 11:0436Punt0–7
MINQ2 9:27956Punt0–7
DETQ2 4:01731Punt0–7
MINQ2 1:2139Punt0–7
DETQ2 0:432-7End of half0–7
DETQ3 15:00985Touchdown7–7
MINQ3 10:27619Punt7–7
DETQ3 7:011271Field goal10–7
MINQ4 14:25213Turnover10–7
DETQ4 13:3436Field goal13–7
MINQ4 12:433-7Punt13–7
DETQ4 11:323-12Punt13–7
MINQ4 9:2728Touchdown13–14
DETQ4 9:19939Punt13–14
MINQ4 4:53573End of half13–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3321710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush14322.30
Joique Bell8313.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Ogletree510750
Nate Burleson57640
Reggie Bush56331
Joique Bell44250
Joseph Fauria33200
Kris Durham0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel20/3318911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata141158.20
Cordarrelle Patterson25427.01
Matt Cassel451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings56440
Chase Ford57430
Jarius Wright23310
Cordarrelle Patterson25311
Jerome Simpson37290
Rhett Ellison11130
Matt Asiata23-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.31