2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

33·28

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

51

Model margin

+2.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.072EPA / play+0.077
  • 45.4%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.164
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.072
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +2.82CPOE+4.85
  • 40.8%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.95
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:131570Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 5:43880Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 2:07655Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 14:2135Punt0–7
GBQ2 12:45934Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 7:5930Punt3–7
GBQ2 6:09624Touchdown10–7
CHIQ2 3:28427Turnover10–7
GBQ2 1:47619Field goal13–7
CHIQ2 0:0200End of half13–7
GBQ3 15:0039Punt13–7
CHIQ3 13:18530Touchdown13–14
GBQ3 10:46780Touchdown20–14
CHIQ3 7:27474Touchdown20–21
GBQ3 5:04418Punt20–21
CHIQ3 3:27768Touchdown20–28
GBQ4 14:55677Touchdown27–28
CHIQ4 11:38939Punt27–28
GBQ4 6:241587Touchdown33–28
CHIQ4 0:38415Turnover33–28

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3931822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks11888.00
Eddie Lacy21663.11
Aaron Rodgers155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson10161610
Randall Cobb22552
James Jones67410
Andrew Quarless26310
Eddie Lacy22150
Jarrett Boykin2480
James Starks1270

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler15/2422621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte221105.02
Michael Bush2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery38800
Brandon Marshall610741
Matt Forte44471
Martellus Bennett11150
Marquess Wilson11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.98