Closing spread
GB -3
Total
51
Model margin
+2.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.077
- 45.4%Success rate45.2%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- +2.82CPOE+4.85
- 40.8%Third-down rate42.7%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.19Points / drive1.95
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/39 | 318 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 11 | 88 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 10 | 16 | 161 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 55 | 2 |
| James Jones | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 15/24 | 226 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Michael Bush | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.98