2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

10·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.109EPA / play+0.020
  • 40.7%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.116EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.124
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -3.08CPOE+1.14
  • 36.4%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.79
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:001058Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 9:37612Punt7–0
HOUQ1 7:421151Punt7–0
TENQ1 2:14540Punt7–0
HOUQ2 14:5337Punt7–0
TENQ2 13:21737Field goal7–3
HOUQ2 9:45546Turnover7–3
TENQ2 6:55726Turnover7–3
HOUQ2 3:32516Punt7–3
TENQ2 1:53768Field goal7–6
TENQ3 15:00933Punt7–6
HOUQ3 10:0723Turnover7–6
TENQ3 9:20735Touchdown7–13
HOUQ3 5:3935Punt7–13
TENQ3 4:0748Punt7–13
HOUQ3 1:43629Turnover7–13
TENQ4 14:14514Field goal7–16
HOUQ4 10:44516Punt7–16
TENQ4 7:34425Punt7–16
HOUQ4 5:43857Field goal10–16
TENQ4 2:53415Punt10–16
HOUQ4 1:0610Turnover10–16
TENQ4 1:0100End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub22/3422902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Grimes16503.11
Ray Graham482.00
Matt Schaub273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonathan Grimes66760
Andre Johnson69490
Ryan Griffin37490
DeAndre Hopkins45350
Ray Graham13120
Keshawn Martin1320

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/2416601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson271274.71
Jackie Battle11616.00
Shonn Greene6101.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright58500
Nate Washington25390
Damian Williams11320
Delanie Walker33290
Chris Johnson33140
Jackie Battle1120
Justin Hunter0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.55