Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play+0.020
- 40.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.116EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.124
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -3.08CPOE+1.14
- 36.4%Third-down rate41.0%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.07Points / drive1.79
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 22/34 | 229 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Grimes | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Ray Graham | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Grimes | 6 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ray Graham | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/24 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55